Denver Market - October, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, November 3, 2022
October 2022 exhibits a grateful market for buyers who now have more opportunities to buy a home in the Denver Metro area.
As the Denver market normalizes, active inventory declined slightly to 7,290 homes on the market at month’s end. However, this is an increase of 115.94 percent year-over-year. While this number reads as a jump, the current inventory is still less than the pre-pandemic inventory numbers of 8,557 active listings in October 2019.
Rising inflation and interest rates are undoubtedly changing the landscape of the market, showcased in new listings, which declined 26.73 percent from last month and 27.92 year-over-year. As a result, Denver Metro saw its first small decline in average and median sales prices this month. However, sale prices skyrocketed over the last two years so as a result, the market is well ahead of historical appreciation metrics of where the Denver market should be had it not experienced a pandemic-fueled buying frenzy. Overall, while prices flatten out, the historical appreciation that sellers have seen cannot be ignored.
Denver Market - September, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, October 3, 2022
Denver real estate market moves towards a more balanced seller/buyer market.
As the Denver real estate market continues to evolve and change with the weather, the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not we are in a buyer’s market. Traditionally, a market with less than three months of inventory is considered a seller’s market. In direct relation to that, a market with more than six months of inventory is considered a buyer’s market, which means that three to six months of inventory is defined as a balanced market. These benchmarks help define the Denver Metro current market, which is notably changing.
Currently, the $100,000 to $199,999 and $1 million and over segments for detached homes are pushing the three percent threshold, with 2.75 percent and 2.62 percent, respectively. The $1 million and over segment for attached homes is at 2.83 months of inventory. Using months of inventory as a metric indicates that Denver Metro is moving toward a balanced market.
Denver Market - August, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, September 3, 2022
Greater Denver Metro real estate market report indicates a return to pre-Covid residential market.
All major statistical categories point towards the market slowing down. Days in the MLS went up 120 percent since last year at this time, and the close-price-to-list-price ratio dropped below 100 percent for the first time since July 2020, to 99.41 percent. Meanwhile, the median sales price decreased 2.54 percent from the previous month.
“While some individuals will take this as a sign that the real estate market is about to crash, Denver Metro has seasonality in its market and this is an example of that,” commented Andrew Abrams, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver Realtor®. “With so much instability in the economy and the world as a whole, it is difficult to forecast how the housing economy will be impacted. Interest rates are still the biggest factor in their impact on buyer demand as it is a direct correlation to monthly payments. As the Fed continues to fight inflation, interest rates will continue to be a conversation topic.”
Year-to-date, the Denver Metro is up 8.49 percent in median sales price. That translates to the average homeowner gaining $49,233.51 in equity. New listings dropped 15.50 percent year-over-year. Sellers are no longer incentivized to move as their current interest rate is most likely significantly lower than what they could get if they bought.
Denver Market - July, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, August 3, 2022
July 2022 showed a summer market that is receiving a “cool off,” but with current conditions,
it’s still not enough to push Denver Metro’s current seller’s market to a buyer’s market.
The data confirms that the Denver Metro area is no longer in a shifting market. Instead, it has shifted, and the real estate market is more balanced. Month-over-month, the market is down 3.33 percent but compared to last year, it is still up 11.04 percent, indicating that a more balanced market, combined with slightly decreasing interest rates, may create opportunity for those who previously felt burned out on the process.
One of the primary indicators of a shifted market is the close-price-to-list-price ratio, which was down to 100.81 percent. Buyers have become more specific about what they are looking for and frequently question if, and how much, below the asking price they can offer. Gone are the days that a seller can simply put a sign in the yard and expect their home to sell.
Denver Market - June, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, July 6, 2022
June 2022 demonstrated how buyers and sellers are adjusting
to economic factors and the current recessionary environment.
As month-end active inventory skyrockets, the Denver Metro hit a new record for the average price of attached properties at $504,193. At the end of June 2021, Denver Metro ended with 3,122 properties on the market. It has now almost doubled that amount over the year, with a total of 6,057 properties currently sitting on the market.
Buyers are feeling the woes of the economy. Many first-time homebuyers who were initially pre-approved towards the beginning of the year with a specific interest rate decided to wait to buy until it wasn’t as competitive. But, when they restarted their search in May, they found that it was with an increased interest rate.
On the other hand, many sellers may have closed on a home earlier in the spring, meaning they went under contract with a certain interest rate, but decided to wait to sell their own home until they moved into their new one. And the consequence they saw is longer time on the market and potentially slight price reductions.
Denver Market - May, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, August 3, 2022
May 2022 showed a tale of two markets, with detached median and average prices not increasing
at the same rate as attached but still representing a very hot market overall.
After consecutive months of appreciation, negotiations and bidding wars, modest numbers this month became a sign that the market has returned to a semblance of ‘normal.’ The housing market ended May with 3,652 properties on the market, representing an increase of 448 properties from the previous month, which is seasonally on trend. Closed sales increased 3.75 percent from the previous month, keeping supply and demand relatively balanced.
The attached and detached markets had a similar balance of supply and demand in May. Both markets had the highest number of standing inventory in the $500,000 to $749,999 price points. The biggest difference was the proportion of inventory. For attached properties, that price range made up 29.87 percent of the market and for detached properties, it made up 41.72 percent of the market. There are over four times more single-family detached properties between $500,000 and $749,999 than attached properties.
Denver Market - April, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, May 4, 2022
April 2022 real estate showed that sellers are eager to get their homes on the market
during prime seasonality, and buyers shouldn’t sit on the sidelines.
While inventory is on the rise, so are prices. The average price of a single-family detached home in Denver Metro is $825,073, representing a 3.93 percent increase from last month. With consecutive months of increased prices and interest rates, a buyer's monthly mortgage has increased as well. The average close-price-to-list-price ratio in April for the detached market was 107.29 percent. With the increase in supply, the close-price-to-list-price ratio is an example of how the market was reacting a month ago.
The relationship between closed sales and month-end active inventory impacts the supply and demand of the market and, therefore, many other statistics including average sales price. The most significant factor influencing the supply and demand of this market is interest rates. With many individuals refinancing due to low-interest rates on their house and interest rates north of five percent, there is minimal financial incentive to move.
Denver Market - March, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, April 3, 2022
March 2022 real estate showed that despite increased inventory, there is no sign
of a market cool down anytime in the near future.
With a large increase in month-end active and new listings hitting the market, a slight seasonal shift will positively impact buyers who have started to feel fatigue in the residential market. At the same time, current homeowners continue their unprecedented growth in equity.
With a historically high average sales price of $705,812 and increased interest rates, many buyers who saw their potential monthly payments drastically increase received a sign of reprieve. Month-end active inventory went up 81.16 percent from February to March. The additional 995 new listings on the market at the end of the month also served to slightly aid the balance of supply and demand. While the percentage increase is substantially higher, having such low initial numbers yield a higher percent change. Along with the 43.57 percent increase in new listings, this will serve to help balance the accelerated price appreciation the market has recently seen.
Denver Market - February, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, March 3, 2022
February 2022 continued to be a pillar of strength in the Colorado economy, despite global uncertainty and upheaval.
With 5.36 percent month-over-month appreciation and interest rates increasing, an individual's buying power steadily declined. While 2020 and 2021 took different paths, there is one common denominator: hyperactive buyer demand.
The first two months of 2022 were dictated by a lack of inventory and sales. By the end of February 2021, 8,761 properties hit the market. In 2022, the market has only seen 7,671, a 12.44 percent decrease in listings in two months. This number directly correlates with the 13.31 percent decrease in closed properties so far this year. The lack of supply coupled with the surplus of buyers has caused prices to rise quickly, leading to an unprecedented close-price-to-list-price ratio of 104.75 percent.
Denver Market - January, 2022 Trend Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, February 3, 2022
January 2022 suggests that in the new year, a new strategy must be implemented in order to buy a home
While traditionally the market sees a 70 percent increase in new listings from December to January, the market ended down 17.77 percent in new listings compared to 2021, a 31.04 increase from the previous month. Likewise, the market ended with month-end active listings at a historic low of 1,184. To put into context, that is over 10 times less inventory than normal.
Last year at this time, there was little inventory. This year, there’s nearly half as much at 48.88 percent less, which will likely translate to fewer homes being bought and sold over the course of the year as there is less to choose from in the Denver Metro area prompting the continuation of extreme bidding wars.
Denver Market - 2021 Year-End Review
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, January 24, 2022
2021 marks the 11th consecutive year of home price growth in Metro Denver
The data confirms that 2021 was a seller’s market powered by low inventory, low interest rates and high buyer demand. More homes were bought in 2021 in Metro Denver than in any prior year – 63,684 which represented $38.9 billion in sales. In 2020, the number of closings was 63,501 at a value of $33.2 billion. And the year prior, 2019, there were 58,899 closings worth $28.6 billion. This maintains a now 11-year-trend of home price growth for the metro area.
As 2021 progressed, new listings declined substantially leading to a mere 1,477 active homes by year-end. Same time one-year prior showed almost 13,000 homes on the market leading DMAR to predict another “extreme seller’s market” for 2022.
It’s no surprise that inventory shortages coupled with more buyers armed with low interest rates resulted in surging home prices. The average sales price in 2021 was $612,274 which represents an almost 17% gain over 2020. The year also saw Denver's conforming loan limits increase to $684,250 which is $37,050 higher than national limits.
Denver Market - December 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, January 3, 2022
December listings continued to prove that 2021 was an extreme seller’s market.
Throughout the ebbs and flows of 2021, interest rates remained low and buyer demand stayed consistently high. DMAR found there were more homes purchased in 2021, 63,684 than any previous year. While demand was at an all-time high, the number of new listings that hit the market throughout the year was down 5.26 percent, which is one of the reasons why the market ended the year with another historic indicator, month-end active listings.
At the beginning of January, there were only 1,477 active properties on the market in the entire Denver Metro area, which is 11,175 fewer houses on the market than normal. Based on the sustained demand for housing and lack of inventory, the market is projected to see double-digit appreciation this year, which it has not seen in back-to-back years of double-digit appreciation since 2015-2016 and 1998-2000.
Denver Market - November 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, December 3, 2021
November shows a drastic decrease in inventory with people continuing to buy and sell in droves.
From October to November, the market saw a staggering 33.41 percent decrease in month-end active inventory, dropping to 2,248. Throughout the entire Denver Metro area, there are currently only 1,444 single-family detached properties and 804 attached properties to buy.
Over the past five years, month-end active inventory dropped between 23.36 percent in 2016 and 27.92 percent in 2019. Theoretically, if inventory stayed the course and dropped 25 percent this year, the market would end the year at 1,686 active properties leading into 2022, which is drastically lower than the end of 2020 and would lead to the most competitive year yet. With 2,248 active listings on the market and that number expected to go down by the end of the month, expectations are set that 2022 will be a wild and competitive ride.
Denver Market - October 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, November 3, 2021
October review signifies that there are aspects of the current housing market
to be thankful for in the Denver metro area.
In a year of continued turbulence, October represented a month of relative ease in the bumpy Denver real estate market, signaling gratitude across the housing industry. Across the board, the majority of statistics were seasonally consistent with what Denver has seen in years past, boding well for more households having the ability to host a Thanksgiving dinner. With prices staying consistent month-over-month, the door has opened for buyers that were previously exhibiting burn out in the home search process.
In the month end active inventory, Denver saw that when lower numbers change, they yield higher percentages. At the end of October, there were 3,376 properties on the market, a 14.98 percent decrease from the previous month. The amount of listings also decreased by 13.28 percent, showing minimal changes in the month end inventory.
Denver Market - September 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, October 21, 2021
With a 10.86 percent increase in inventory, now is still a fiery hot time to buy in this market.
After Realtors® felt a relative slow down and seasonal return in July and August, September felt back to the normal red-hot speed in today’s housing market. Closed properties were 12.81 percent lower than last month at this time and a notable 19.27 percent lower than last September. With lower inventory and fewer homes, the balance of supply and demand stayed steady, leading to another month of competition for buyers. Months of inventory increased to .76 and while it may not have felt like a huge increase, it gave potential buyers a few more options.
Excluding the $0 to $99,000 homes, the most competitive market ranked in the $300,000 to $399,999 range. This price point had 0.51 months of inventory with a surprising 218 closed properties, showing that one can indeed still find a single-family detached property under $400,000. The least competitive market was attached properties over $1 million. While there were still 56 attached properties that sold over $1 million, the month-of-inventory for this category was 2.16, more than four times less competitive than the $300,000 to $400,000 and the $400,000 to $500,000 range.
Denver Market - August 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, September 15, 2021
A slowdown in inventory but still a good time for burnt-out buyers to re-enter the market
as seasonality takes hold of the area.
Keeping in trend with traditional seasonality, the transition from July to August felt like a shift as vacations slowed down in preparation for the school year and fall. Buyers are more willing to be patient in order to find the right house for the “right” price. The report saw this reflected in the days in MLS, which increased from nine to 11 in August 2021. Likewise, the close-price-to-list-price ratio dipped ever so slightly month-over-month. In a dramatic data point, the month-end active inventory dropped 11.69 percent. Historically speaking, the change in inventory is relatively consistent from July to August.
However, with both inventory and new listings decreasing, the short-lived “loose grip” on inventory has tightened once again. Months of inventory decreased from the previous month to 0.637. The report also indicated that if no one were to put a property on the market for 19 days, there would be nothing to sell in the entire Denver Metro area.
Denver Market - July 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, August 11, 2021
Pool of buyers continues to shrink in terms of affordability
while sellers continue to list their homesin expectations of it selling higher.
While still in a robust seller's market, the July 2021 report indicates that as we head into fall, buyers will start to have more time to review properties and less competition on the number of offers overall. The July residential real estate market reported an increased inventory of 29.92 percent, while it also represented a decrease in closings of 12.30 percent compared to the previous month, indicating a supply increase and demand decrease.
While the average closed price was 16.40 percent higher this July than July 2020 and July represented the lowest number of active properties at month's end in July’s history, with an inventory of only 4,056 properties, this number actually increased from June to July, reflecting the flow of the market.
Denver Market - June 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, July 5, 2021
Trend shows a return to normalcy with a month-end inventory increase
of over 50 percent in the Denver Metro Real Estate Market.
In June 2021, the report shows that what goes down must come up. Overall, month-end active inventory increased 50.46 percent compared to May 2021, which is the highest percentage of month-over-month increase in DMAR records. The number of new listings was up 23.89 percent month-over-month.
Likewise, the number of closed properties increased 9.29 percent. More houses hit the market in June and therefore more people had the opportunity to buy, which is reflected in the month of inventory increasing to 0.50. While historically this still remains incredibly low, it does show a slight shift from the previous month which was 0.39.
Denver Market - May 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, June 5, 2021
May 2021 proves that even buyer fatigue cannot stop Denver Metro area buyers from slowing down or giving up,
with increased opportunities rising an extreme market.
In May 2021, the data demonstrated that while it is an extreme seller’s market in the Metro Denver area, closings are still happening, up 18.78 percent, despite active listings being down 4.11 percent year-to-date from 2020. At the same time, the report showed that closings are up 18.78 percent, an extreme statistic that is both a reflection of how the pandemic shutdown impacted the real estate industry last year at this time and yet also supports the concept of increased buyer demand.
Throughout 2021, the Metro Denver area has seen cracks in the attached market while the detached continued to rise in urgency and price. In May, buyers saw those cracks and moved on a relative opportunity in the attached market creating the lowest month-end active inventory on record, with only 739 properties available to sell. Those cracks are now gone, and it is a strong seller’s market for every property type and price point.
The Denver Metro’s 2021 real estate market has turned into an unpredictable year, lacking seasonal consistency with rainy weather in tow, while prices continue to skyrocket. The area hit a new average sales price record of $700,559 for single-family detached properties.
Denver Market - April 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, May 5, 2021
Greater Denver Metro real estate market depicts an ongoing inventory crisis
due to hyper-demand in the region…but there is hope.
April 2021 in the Greater Denver Metro housing market showed that the blatant hyper-demand in the residential housing industry continues to result in historic low months end inventory, even with months-end active inventory increasing by 35.03 percent.
Altogether, there were still only 2,594 active properties at the end of the month, representing the lowest April on record and 48.38 percent less inventory than the previous April low in 2015. As one reflects on this month's market trends report, it is important to remember where the market was this time last year.
April 2020 was a month of confusion, fear and uncertainty for the world. The ebbs and flow of being an “essential” worker were reflected in new listings last year, which were down 43.02 percent compared to April of this year.
Since last year, the market has seen a steady rise in competition and therefore prices have as well. With only two weeks of inventory, year-over-year appreciation continues to be both staggering for the market while also bringing home sellers inevitably great returns, increasing 24.20 percent in April.
Denver Market - March 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, April 5, 2021
One-year post COVID and this unwavering seller's market makes it clear that buyers are left making emotional decisions
rather than factual ones when purchasing a home.
In March, the Greater Denver Metro housing area displayed itself as an emotional market, with nearly every statistic in the report justifying how much competition there is for buyers as well as how far they are willing to take their offers to secure a home.
Year-over-year appreciation is at 15.26 percent from $511,511 to $589,587 this March, while month-over-month appreciation is at 6.90 percent from $551,542. On par with recent months, median days in the MLS went down to four, while close-price-to-list-price ratio went up to 103.32 percent. Whether looking at detached or attached properties, it is a strong seller's market across the board.
Theoretically, the DMAR report shows that if a buyer waited just one month to buy a $500,000 property from the end of February to the end of March, they would have had to pay $35,000 more for that property.
Denver Market - February 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, March 3, 2021
The underlying 2021 theme of this seller’s market is that buyer demand continues to stay hot,
even as many buyers continue to be iced out in this fast-paced market.
In February, the Greater Denver Metro housing market proved that the underlying theme of this market is speed: speed at which buyers are purchasing relative to the number of sellers listing, and the speed at which active properties are going under contract while prices are accelerating.
While many metrics still show detached properties are in higher demand than attached, that gap decreased in February. There were 3,641 closed properties, up 3.70 percent from last year at this time, and in part because attached properties were on the rise. Attached properties saw a 16.29 percent increase in closings relative to last year at this time.
The increased demand for attached properties propelled the market to an average close price of $401,552. This is the first time the attached market has had an average price above $400,000. Meanwhile, detached properties saw a 1.80 percent decrease in closed properties relative to last year.
Denver Market - January 2021 Trends Report
Source: Denver Metro Association of Realtors, February 3, 2021
Inventory drops to historic lows at the average price of single-family detached and attached homes reaches record high.
In January, the Greater Denver Metro housing market again broke an all-time record, a new inventory inventory low with only 2,316 total properties on the market, translating into an inventory shortage and opportunity for appreciation to accelerate.
Single-family detached properties hit a record average price of $629,159, while attached properties hit a record of $397,792. Single-family home sellers saw a 101.03 percent close-to-list price price in January and a drop to five days in the MLS, down from six last month and 24 days last year.
Overall, the drive in demand has been proportionally higher for single-family detached properties than attached properties, explaining why the market is currently sitting with historic low inventory for single-family detached properties.